Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has recognised that net migration in the UK “needs to fall further”, despite official statistics revealing the figure has roughly decreased by half since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor and Labour’s candidate in the by-election in Makerfield made the comments after the ONS reported on Thursday that migration contributed 171,000 people to the UK’s population last year — the smallest figure since 2012, excluding the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “raised their concerns about immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he endorses the “broad thrust” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s suggested reforms to make it harder for migrants to settle permanently, he stressed the government must “strike the right balance” on the disputed policy.

Net migration hits lowest level in over ten years

The latest Office for National Statistics figures marks a substantial shift in the UK’s migration trajectory. The figure of 171,000 indicates the smallest yearly net migration figures since 2012, a sharp turnaround from the peak levels seen in the past few years. This substantial decline reflects the government’s concerted efforts to tighten visa policy and reduce overall population inflow through stricter visa requirements and stricter enforcement.

The progress has been noted by Labour leadership, who view the figures as evidence that their migration approach is producing concrete results. However, ministers have cautioned that additional cuts are required to meet their long-range objectives. The Home Office has cautioned that without additional policy changes, approximately 1.6 million people could secure permanent settlement between 2026 and 2030, driving the government’s push for stricter residency requirements.

• Net migration dropped from record highs to lowest point since 2012
• 171,000 people contributed to UK population via migration gains last year
• Government intends to make permanent settlement considerably more difficult for migrants
• Home Office projects 1.6m potential settlers without policy changes

Settlement regulations face a major overhaul during ongoing political discussion

The government’s plans to tighten settlement rules have triggered significant controversy within Labour’s internal ranks, with a number of high-ranking officials voicing concerns about the retrospective nature of the proposed changes. Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been notably critical in her opposition, labelling the policy as “un-British” and accused the government of “moving the goalposts” on those relocating to Britain who have commenced settling in the UK. These objections underscore significant rifts within the party over how to balance managing immigration with humanitarian values and equity.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has justified the proposals as essential and equitable, contending they are crucial to prevent what she describes as a “drain on our public finances”. She has highlighted that the measures are measured approaches to anticipated intake levels that could hit 1.6 million people from 2026 to 2030 without action. The engagement exercise on these contentious proposals will be crucial in ascertaining whether the administration can strike a balance that meets the needs of both strict enforcers and those troubled by the personal consequences of more stringent controls.

What these proposed changes entail

Settlement, formally known as indefinite leave to remain, grants individuals the right to live, work and study in the UK permanently, whilst also enabling them to obtain certain state benefits if eligible. The proposed governmental modifications would make it substantially harder for migrants to attain this status, effectively restricting extended residence prospects. This represents a major change in approach designed to manage demographic expansion and reduce forecast settlement figures substantially over the coming years.

• Settlement offers lasting entitlement to live and work in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residence substantially tougher to obtain
• Policy aims to reduce 1.6m projected settlements between 2026-2030

Burnham changes stance on divisive social matters

Andy Burnham has signalled a marked shift in his stance towards single-sex spaces, recognising that his views have evolved in light of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission new guidance on the matter. The Mayor of Greater Manchester said to the BBC on Friday that he now endorses the Supreme Court decision defining a woman under the Equality Act as determined by biological sex, saying it “has to be implemented”. This represents a significant shift from his previous stance, when he suggested that concerns about trans women in women’s toilets were held by only a “small minority”.

Burnham emphasised, however, that whilst accepting the regulatory structure, the execution must be handled with care and understanding. He stressed that the ruling should not turn into “a kind of triumph against other people in society” and warned against continuing to marginalise already at-risk communities. His carefully calibrated position seeks to balance legal obligations with social responsibility, demonstrating broader Labour tensions over how to navigate increasingly divided discussions around questions of gender and equality.

The progression of his position

When pressed on whether his position had shifted, Burnham was forthright, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve followed the debate as it’s gone along over the years.” His admission demonstrates a readiness to reconsider established positions in light of legal developments and public consultation, demonstrating the fluidity of political positioning on divisive social issues within the party.

Electoral contest intensifies in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s observations on social policy and immigration occur as Labour readies for a crucial by-election battle in Makerfield, a historically secure Labour seat in the Greater Manchester area. The by-election, prompted by the resignation of sitting MP Mike Jevons, represents a major test of the party’s electoral standing in a heartland constituency where working-class anxieties about public services and immigration have long dominated the local political debate. Burnham’s willingness to acknowledge public anxieties about migration whilst upholding the government’s wider strategy suggests Labour is acutely aware of the political sensitivities attending these matters in previously industrial regions.

The Makerfield contest holds particular symbolic weight, as the constituency has been held by Labour since 1997 and any significant swing away from the party would reverberate across Westminster. Burnham’s prominent campaign efforts in the seat emphasises Labour’s determination to hold the line, whilst his shift in approach to key policy areas signals an attempt to address voter concerns head-on rather than dismiss them. The by-election outcome will provide an early barometer of whether the government’s approach of recognising public sentiment whilst upholding progressive policies can successfully navigate the political minefield of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield controlled by Labour from 1997 with minimal opposition
• By-election triggered by sitting MP Mike Jevons’ resignation
• Result will reveal government’s electoral strength in core Labour areas